Who the heck is buying in todays market?

Toronto Real Estate Newsletter – April 2025

As we wrap up the first quarter of 2025, it's clear that the Toronto real estate market is still struggling to gain its footing. While prices have remained relatively flat, the story for March is more about what isn’t happening than what is. Simply put, buyer confidence remains low, and it’s showing in the numbers.

March 2025 Market Snapshot

According to the latest TRREB data, GTA REALTORS® reported just 5,011 home sales in March 2025, a sharp 23.1% decline compared to March 2024. In fact, this marks the lowest March sales figure in the past 30 years—a stunning statistic that underscores the uncertainty many buyers are feeling in today’s market.

And yet, new listings are surging. March saw 17,263 new listings, up 28.6% year-over-year. Inventory is building across both the condo and freehold sectors, giving buyers a growing number of options and reinforcing the shift away from a competitive seller’s market.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down month-over-month compared to February 2025, showing that any early-year momentum may have already started to fade.

What’s Happening on the Ground

It’s becoming increasingly clear that many buyers are in wait-and-see mode. Concerns around high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and affordability continue to weigh on consumer sentiment. So who’s actually buying right now? I’m finding those in a strong financial position are active, perhaps they have no property to sell or a low to no mortgage at all. Many are looking to find value by upsizing to a family home and are the ones actively searching, others are first time home buyers wanting to use this slowdown to get into a neighbourhood and home that in past years seemed impossible — this is especially happening in neighbourhoods with strong fundamentals such as well rated schools, transit, parks, walkability, as these neighbourhoods usually have very low inventory and plenty of competition. These buyers are interested in turnkey, ready to go, homes. With inventory higher than past years the opportunities are there more so than we have seen in years before to enter these sought after neighbourhoods. 

Still the bulk of prospective buyers are cautious and playing wait and see, but make no mistake I’m seeing interest from buyers, conversations are happening, inquiries are there just at a more casual pace, watching, evaluating and thus not many actually converting to transactions because of the uncertainty, which makes sense. 

Freeholds are definitely moving faster than Condos. Smaller condos, Triplex homes and commercial properties are the most sluggish part of the market as those are always investor driven and most investors are currently hibernating. For those who can afford to take on some calculated risk they are seeing the opportunities and understanding the negotiating power they have in todays market and on the look out for deals.    

At the same time, sellers are entering the market in greater numbers. Whether motivated by changing life circumstances, financial needs, or a belief that the market may worsen before it improves, we’re seeing more listings hit the market than we have in years.

Condo and Freehold: Inventory Keeps Climbing

In both the condo and freehold segments, we’re seeing inventory swell. Condos, in particular, remain a buyer-friendly market with high supply and limited urgency from buyers. Meanwhile, freeholds—especially detached homes—are still seeing demand, but it's tempered and heavily price-sensitive.

Sellers in all segments should note: homes that are priced accurately and show well will still attract attention. But the margin for error is slim. Overpriced properties are sitting, and buyers are not in the mood to chase.

Looking Forward: What to Watch This Spring

We’re entering the busiest season of the real estate year—the spring market—but this year feels different. Buyer activity has been slow to materialize, instead they are watching and unless something changes—such as a significant mortgage rate drop or a shift in economic sentiment—we may be headed for a slower-than-usual spring.

This doesn’t mean the market is dead (but it is very slow)—it’s evolving. For buyers, it’s a chance to shop with less pressure and more options. For sellers, it’s more important than ever to have a clear strategy, strong marketing, and a realistic price.

Final Thoughts

The first three months of 2025 has reminded us that confidence plays a huge role in the housing market. Even with more homes for sale and prices relatively flat, many are choosing to wait. What happens next is anyones guess, but could a usual seasonal slow down that happens every June-August finally bring prices down as inventory sits? Will buyers flinch and jump in as they see more options and perhaps lower rates and a new election calm things come summer? As I've perviously stated in my past newsletters I do not see Condo’s improving anytime soon, inventory will stay high, and prices will trend downwards for the rest of the year. Freeholds? Well if things calm down with all the tariff talks and rates drop further I suspect we could see a stronger than usual fall market for those.

If you're looking to buy or sell, knowledge is power. Let’s talk strategy so you can make the most informed decisions possible in today’s market.

As always, if you have any questions or want to know what’s happening in your neighbourhood specifically, or just understand the value of your home in todays market, don’t hesitate to reach out!

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