"Let's Wait In The Car, The Snack's Aren't Out Yet." - July 2025 - Toronto Market Update

How Most Toronto Buyers Are Feeling Right Now

Hard to believe we are at the halfway point of 2025 already. The news has been fairly consistent throughout the year with buyers being MIA and sellers struggling to figure out how best to proceed. June numbers are out, lets unpack them as well as what I'm seeing on the ground.

The market has been challenging to say the least but we could be seeing the very early first glimpse of buyers starting to take advantage of the choice they have and more importantly for them, the negotiating power they have which is leading to the softer prices.

We’ve officially hit that part of the cycle where buyers have the upper hand—but some either do not realize it yet or they do and hope there is more of a downturn ahead so they wait. Still, they are asking questions and watching.

It’s like everyone showed up to the party early, saw the snack table wasn’t out, and decided to wait in the car.

Looking at the stats:

June 2025 wrapped up with 6,243 sales across the GTA, down 2.4% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, June home sales are flat month-over-month compared to May 2025.

Active listings are up a whopping 30.8% year-over-year with 31,603 available homes for sale across the GTA. New listings however are up 7.7% which is a jump but only half as much as the 14% jump in new listings we had in May 2025 and much less than the 28% in new listings we had in April 2025. Now, important to state this trend of less listings heading into summer months is normal, more listings come up in the months of March - May than June as thats the traditional Spring Market but the difference is substantial compared to the amount of listings we had from March to May. With a small uptick in sales and new interested buyers inquiring, we can see how this could possibly shift things slightly heading into the second half of the year if this trend continues.

I am seeing and hearing from more buyers, first time buyers especially. With lower interest rates, first time buyers have had time to pile up more savings and with prices declining they can now afford more, including homes they may not have been able to consider in the past that are now within their reach sitting on the market and waiting for a negotiation.

As an example the condo market has seen such a price shift that there are plenty of starter 1 Bed or 2 Bed units that are selling 20% below what they sold in the peak of 2021 and 2022. I’m talking 2 Bedrooms, mid town, next to the subway, newer buildings, move in ready that used to sell for $800,000 -$850,000 now selling for $630,000. More to come on this and houses in different neighbourhoods with similar trends of prices falling as I’ll share some of these real sold examples 2021 vs 2025 similar sales on my instagram and twitter in the coming weeks.

The average selling price in June 2025 dropped to $1,101,691, a 5.4% dip from June 2024.

So, the trend is clear: prices are softening, listings are piling up but at a slower pace, and buyers have options with new buyers starting to take advantage of the lower prices as some jump in.

Final Thought:

Here’s the truth no one wants to say out loud: There will not be a big bounce back this year, or next year. We’re not suddenly going back to 2021/22 energy. If anything, the market is normalizing, and this might be what normal feels like for a while. I suspect we will see prices begin to flatline going into 2026 and just stay there, for a while.

If you’re a buyer waiting for some magic moment where prices crash you’re probably waiting too long. As mentioned above you can find homes selling 10%, 15%, 20% less today than they were selling in 2021 -2023. Will prices fall further? Possibly, nobody can predict that, but with so many buyers on the sidelines I can see many of them realize that timing the market is a foolish game, if they are in a secure position finically, have strong jobs that wont be affected much by tariffs or a recession then starting their search now is as good as any, buyer competition is low, they can now afford more in the sought after areas they want to be in and if they plan correctly and are patient to buy what they like and stay 5,7,10 years they will be just fine even if prices fall a bit.

For sellers. This summer is all about strategy. If you need to sell, price sharp. Look great. Negotiate smart. This is not a time to be stubborn. And above all—adjust your expectations.

Questions? Want a deep dive on your neighbourhood? Or just want someone to cut through the noise? Send me a email or set up a No Obligation Phone call.