Who the heck is buying in todays market?

Toronto Real Estate Newsletter – April 2025

As we wrap up the first quarter of 2025, it's clear that the Toronto real estate market is still struggling to gain its footing. While prices have remained relatively flat, the story for March is more about what isn’t happening than what is. Simply put, buyer confidence remains low, and it’s showing in the numbers.

March 2025 Market Snapshot

According to the latest TRREB data, GTA REALTORS® reported just 5,011 home sales in March 2025, a sharp 23.1% decline compared to March 2024. In fact, this marks the lowest March sales figure in the past 30 years—a stunning statistic that underscores the uncertainty many buyers are feeling in today’s market.

And yet, new listings are surging. March saw 17,263 new listings, up 28.6% year-over-year. Inventory is building across both the condo and freehold sectors, giving buyers a growing number of options and reinforcing the shift away from a competitive seller’s market.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down month-over-month compared to February 2025, showing that any early-year momentum may have already started to fade.

What’s Happening on the Ground

It’s becoming increasingly clear that many buyers are in wait-and-see mode. Concerns around high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and affordability continue to weigh on consumer sentiment. So who’s actually buying right now? I’m finding those in a strong financial position are active, perhaps they have no property to sell or a low to no mortgage at all. Many are looking to find value by upsizing to a family home and are the ones actively searching, others are first time home buyers wanting to use this slowdown to get into a neighbourhood and home that in past years seemed impossible — this is especially happening in neighbourhoods with strong fundamentals such as well rated schools, transit, parks, walkability, as these neighbourhoods usually have very low inventory and plenty of competition. These buyers are interested in turnkey, ready to go, homes. With inventory higher than past years the opportunities are there more so than we have seen in years before to enter these sought after neighbourhoods. 

Still the bulk of prospective buyers are cautious and playing wait and see, but make no mistake I’m seeing interest from buyers, conversations are happening, inquiries are there just at a more casual pace, watching, evaluating and thus not many actually converting to transactions because of the uncertainty, which makes sense. 

Freeholds are definitely moving faster than Condos. Smaller condos, Triplex homes and commercial properties are the most sluggish part of the market as those are always investor driven and most investors are currently hibernating. For those who can afford to take on some calculated risk they are seeing the opportunities and understanding the negotiating power they have in todays market and on the look out for deals.    

At the same time, sellers are entering the market in greater numbers. Whether motivated by changing life circumstances, financial needs, or a belief that the market may worsen before it improves, we’re seeing more listings hit the market than we have in years.

Condo and Freehold: Inventory Keeps Climbing

In both the condo and freehold segments, we’re seeing inventory swell. Condos, in particular, remain a buyer-friendly market with high supply and limited urgency from buyers. Meanwhile, freeholds—especially detached homes—are still seeing demand, but it's tempered and heavily price-sensitive.

Sellers in all segments should note: homes that are priced accurately and show well will still attract attention. But the margin for error is slim. Overpriced properties are sitting, and buyers are not in the mood to chase.

Looking Forward: What to Watch This Spring

We’re entering the busiest season of the real estate year—the spring market—but this year feels different. Buyer activity has been slow to materialize, instead they are watching and unless something changes—such as a significant mortgage rate drop or a shift in economic sentiment—we may be headed for a slower-than-usual spring.

This doesn’t mean the market is dead (but it is very slow)—it’s evolving. For buyers, it’s a chance to shop with less pressure and more options. For sellers, it’s more important than ever to have a clear strategy, strong marketing, and a realistic price.

Final Thoughts

The first three months of 2025 has reminded us that confidence plays a huge role in the housing market. Even with more homes for sale and prices relatively flat, many are choosing to wait. What happens next is anyones guess, but could a usual seasonal slow down that happens every June-August finally bring prices down as inventory sits? Will buyers flinch and jump in as they see more options and perhaps lower rates and a new election calm things come summer? As I've perviously stated in my past newsletters I do not see Condo’s improving anytime soon, inventory will stay high, and prices will trend downwards for the rest of the year. Freeholds? Well if things calm down with all the tariff talks and rates drop further I suspect we could see a stronger than usual fall market for those.

If you're looking to buy or sell, knowledge is power. Let’s talk strategy so you can make the most informed decisions possible in today’s market.

As always, if you have any questions or want to know what’s happening in your neighbourhood specifically, or just understand the value of your home in todays market, don’t hesitate to reach out!

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How to Avoid Overpaying for Your Next Home

August 12th 2021

Every time I meet with a new buyer lately one of the main concerns I hear (understandably) is how to avoid overpaying for their next home.

I thought it would be helpful to breakdown a solution to help avoid this problem.

Before you bid on your next home your realtor should create a detailed Comparative Market Analysis (CMA). The goal of a CMA is to understand the homes true value before you decide to buy it, this is especially important when homes are priced low on purpose to create a multiple offer situation. List price in the GTA is just that, a list price -- it doesn't always reflect true value.

Street location is a very important consideration: Is the property beside a commercial building? Is it on a quiet residential crescent? Does it call a busy main or through street home? All of these factors affect value to some extent.

Finally, being able to read the market temperature at the moment of purchase for a particular neighbourhood is also important when it comes to making sure the home you buy is worth what you pay for it and not less.

This is incredibly relevant when it comes to financing, as it's possible that if an appraiser discovers a home is not worth what a buyer paid for it they may only provide a loan up to the appraised value. Meaning, if you pay $1,100,000 for a home and an appraiser values the home at 1,050,000, you're on the hook to come up with the other $50,000 to close.

As you can probably see, this reality can become problematic in a market where multiple offers on homes are the norm and homes are consistently underpriced by sellers/realtors to create said multiple offers in an effort to achieve sky-high sales price.

So, how do you avoid overpaying on a home that’s priced under market value and that you will most likely be in a bidding war to win?

Answer : A very good CMA.

Most CMA’s take between 45 and 90 min to put together depending on home, area, and available comps. Condos are a bit easier to prepare a CMA for while freehold homes take longer because the differences between individual homes are usually greater than those found when comparing 800 sq ft two bedroom condos in the same building.

The repetition of this excersize takes patience, a must for understanding of a neighbourhood and home type. Also understanding different price points ($500K vs $4M for example) can be tricky. And, again, having an accurate read of the current market temperature in a particular neighbourhood is vital.

There are a few different ways to put together a CMA -- and details do matter. It shouldn’t just be looking up the last sale close by. Researching at least two to four similar homes is always best practice.

I like to break down each comparable home by the following attributes, much like a appraiser for a bank does:

Home Location/Neighbourhood

If it's a Condo, look at similar sold units in the same building or sister building by the same builder. Sometimes different buildings are not great comparables as the building's maintenance fees, amenities, age, and reserve fund may all be different and thus affect value. For freeholds, school catchment can sometimes play a role as well.

Type of Home

Is it a condo, a townhome, a detached house? Is it a bungalow or a two-story home? Lot size is also important on freeholds (particularly the width of the lot). For condos, square feet, view(s), layout and floor location (think: a corner unit/penthouse vs rest of building), and room sizes are all important factors in evaluation.

Parking and Outdoor Space

Does the property come with parking? Is a driveway private or shared? Is there a garage, and if so, is it built in or detached, double or single? What are the sizes of both the back and front yards, what's the quality of landscaping, is there a pool?

Updates

How updated the home is and what its overall condition is are very important considerations. I've seen homes with renovations that are so poorly done many of the items need to be addressed again. Compare this to a home that has been lived in for 35 years but is in impeccable condition? To me that’s nearly a wash. If a condo, the age of mechanics such as the roof, the HVAC system, electrical, plumbing, and the condition of the windows all play a role in evaluation. These last items are ones I find not enough buyers pay attention to.

Next is finding the most recent comparable home sales nearby and noting the difference in each by + or – dollars.

Example: A new roof on a average home is $7K, and new windows on a bungalow approximately $20k. Laneway access homes in Riverdale usually sell more than a comparable home with no laneway. The point is, none of this is an exact science.

A home may seem to be worth $1.1M based on recent sales and all the attributes mentioned.But we also have to take into consideration the market in that particular neighbourhood -- is it speeding up or slowing down? We need to better understand on a micro level how competitive, or perhaps uncompetitive, the area is on offer day.

This is where all the aforementioned legwork, experience, and data plays a role. Your agent should be finding out how many offers the last few nearby properties that sold received. Are showings on other nearby listings up or down? If a recent sale received nine offers, that could mean eight other buyers lost out and might still be looking to buy a similar home in the neighbourhood. At least some of these buyers may offer on the next available property, which means it's highly possible that if the home you are offering on gets six offers (including yours) it may very well sell for above its CMA value.

This does not mean you should pay that higher price for the home, but it does mean you should prepare yourself mentally and emotionally for what's to come.

As a buyer in a competitive market it helps you rationalize and weigh the pros, cons, and risks of deciding to pay more for a property (or deciding not to) and how best to proceed. Maybe it is worth it to you to pay more than a home's current value because it has certain aspects that you, as an individual buyer, value above others.

For example, I once had a couple who wanted to buy a home on the same street as their parents. The market was super competitive, but they were comfortable paying a premium (+2-3% above the home's actual value) because they could afford it. They also had the funds available to cover any appraisal shortfall and time was more important to them than waiting another 6-12 months for another house on the street to come up.

Others will be patient and wait it out, and that’s okay too. Home buying isn't always a quick process, it takes time to find the perfect property for every buyer. Once a buyer learns to focus on controlling only what they can, their stress levels will go down. If someone else pays 10% above value on a home, so be it -- at least you didn't overpay.

The most important takeaway is that using data, experience, and a discernible eye to understand a home's true value will go a long way in ensuring you don't overpay -- hot market or not.

Questions? Set Up A No Obligation Phone Call With Gus

GTA Housing Market - Is this the start of a price shift?

Feb 7 2025

With all the uncertainty in our economy to start the year I thought it would be helpful to send an update on what I'm seeing both on the ground and in the stats for the Toronto and Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Markets, where the market is today and where I think it may be headed.

Whether you are actively in the market or a casual observer its always good to understand current market dynamics and changes we may anticipate in the market over the next few months. Below is my February 2025 update unpacking the numbers to end 2024 and how I think 2025 will begin. I hope you find this helpful.

As always if you have any questions, comments or concerns feel free to email me or to set up a No Obligation Phone Call you can clink this link.

Toronto Real Estate Newsletter – February 2025

We are well into the new year, and the Toronto real estate market is setting the stage for what could be a pivotal 2025. While home prices have remained mostly flat for over a year, we could now be seeing the beginning of a shift—listings continue to increase in both the condo and freehold sectors, sales are sluggish to start the year and uncertainty is in the headlines. Let’s break down what’s happening in the market today and what the latest data is telling us.

Breaking Down the January 2025 Numbers

- Sales for all home types for Jan 2025 were down 7.9% from Jan 2024

- Listing up a whopping 49%, 12,392 new listing Jan 2025 vs 8,337 in Jan 2024

- Active listing for all home types currently available on the market for the GTA sitting at 17,157 Jan 2025 vs 10,083 Jan 2024

In the summer months condo inventory spiked to over 10,000 units available for sale in the GTA, the most we have ever seen on record in one month, that inventory currently sits around 11,000 units.

Despite the increase in listing activity, the average home price across all property types in the GTA was $1,040,994 in Jan 2025 a 1.5% increase year-over-year. This confirms what we’ve been seeing—prices have been largely stable and holding, they haven’t moved meaningfully in either direction. The big question is will this continue or will we see prices come down in this well-supplied market as we move forward.

Market Dynamics: Using Month Of Inventory to Better Understand the Market

We use the Months of Inventory (MOI) metric to gauge market conditions. As of January:

Overall MOI for the GTA sits at 4.8 months, which suggests a balanced market for all home types.

0-3 Months (MOI) is usually a very competitive market where prices tend to increase

3-6 Months is usually a balanced market where prices tend to stay flat

6+ Months is usually a strong buyers market where prices tend to come down

Condos have an MOI of 6.2 months, meaning buyers have plenty to choose from, and sellers need to be strategic about pricing, buyers currently hold the negotiating power.

Freehold properties have an MOI of 3.9 months, showing stronger demand relative to supply but still not leaning fully into a seller’s market.

For context, at the peak of the market in spring 2022, overall MOI was below 1 Month, indicating an extreme seller’s market with rapid price growth. We are nowhere near those conditions today.

More Supply, Softer Demand

Buyers, you have options, take your time but be actively looking as you never know when a deal will show up. I’m seeing more and more opportunities for buyers being flexible when it comes to style of home, especially if they don’t mind putting their own touches and updates on a home thats a bit dated or they are flexible with their neighbourhood. Homes that need some work, maybe don’t look as new or polished or are multi-unit homes with 3 units or more can be had for less as there is softer demand for those types of homes.

Key takeaway: Buyers in the condo market have the most leverage right now. If you’re looking to purchase a condo you have choice and should negotiate a lower price to protect yourself from the market possibly slipping further in months to come.

Turnkey renovated detached and semi-detached homes are showing healthier inventory than previous years but prices have remained steady with some of the strongest activity in well-connected neighbourhoods near transit and top schools.

While freehold listings are increasing, demand is holding up better compared to condos, largely because there are fewer alternatives for those looking to upsize or buy a family home.

What Will Drive Market Activity?

A few key factors are shaping the current market landscape:

Mortgage rates remain a critical factor. Many buyers have been on the sidelines, waiting for rate cuts. While rates are still higher than they were in 2021, some buyers are adjusting to the new reality and moving forward with purchases understanding we will not see those low rates again for a long time.

More inventory means more choice. With listings increasing, buyers don’t feel the same pressure to rush into deals, leading to longer days on market and more negotiating room.

Upcoming policy changes could influence demand. New federal and provincial housing policies, particularly those affecting first-time buyers, could shift buyer sentiment as they take effect in the coming months.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect in Spring 2025

Traditionally, the spring market buyers start in January, not April. The busiest time for sales is typically February through May, and early indicators suggest that this year will be no different. We are seeing buyer inquiries, buyers looking to upsize, downsize and some first time home buyers wanting to enter the market, however the big question is whether this momentum stays strong for the next few months and into the fall market and will translate into price appreciation or will we see a initial burts of buyers enter and a slow middle part of the year and inventory continues to rise. This remains to be seen.

Although I’m not a fan of trying to predict the sometimes up and down GTA housing market my prediction from what Im seeing both on the ground and in the data suggests prices will continue to stay flat with most freeholds and trend downward for condos for the first half of the year, demand will grow as rate cuts continue and many buyers on the sidelines will see opportunities to buy a home at their pace and perhaps get a value buy. Where it goes from there is anyones guess.

For sellers, inventory continues to rise, expect a competitive market for sellers. Proper pricing, presentation of homr and the right marketing will be critical to stand out.

For buyers, this could be one of the best times in recent memory to find a home without the intense competition of years past and the chance to negotiate a great price.

Final Thoughts

While the market remains balanced for now, conditions are changing. If you’re considering buying or selling in 2025, understanding market trends will be key. Take your time to talk through the process, prepare ahead of time by speaking to your lender and real estate agent and be sure to weigh the pros and cons of renting vs buying or selling first vs buying first if applicable. Look at your living situation, your commute to work, how much space you realistically need. This will help you understand the home type and neighbourhood type you want to be in while remembering to stay on budget.

As always, if you have questions about your specific situation, feel free to reach out. Here’s to a busy and productive start to the year!

All data and charts via realosophy.com

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Via Realosophy.com