"Let's Wait In The Car, The Snack's Aren't Out Yet." - July 2025 - Toronto Market Update

How Most Toronto Buyers Are Feeling Right Now

Hard to believe we are at the halfway point of 2025 already. The news has been fairly consistent throughout the year with buyers being MIA and sellers struggling to figure out how best to proceed. June numbers are out, lets unpack them as well as what I'm seeing on the ground.

The market has been challenging to say the least but we could be seeing the very early first glimpse of buyers starting to take advantage of the choice they have and more importantly for them, the negotiating power they have which is leading to the softer prices.

We’ve officially hit that part of the cycle where buyers have the upper hand—but some either do not realize it yet or they do and hope there is more of a downturn ahead so they wait. Still, they are asking questions and watching.

It’s like everyone showed up to the party early, saw the snack table wasn’t out, and decided to wait in the car.

Looking at the stats:

June 2025 wrapped up with 6,243 sales across the GTA, down 2.4% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, June home sales are flat month-over-month compared to May 2025.

Active listings are up a whopping 30.8% year-over-year with 31,603 available homes for sale across the GTA. New listings however are up 7.7% which is a jump but only half as much as the 14% jump in new listings we had in May 2025 and much less than the 28% in new listings we had in April 2025. Now, important to state this trend of less listings heading into summer months is normal, more listings come up in the months of March - May than June as thats the traditional Spring Market but the difference is substantial compared to the amount of listings we had from March to May. With a small uptick in sales and new interested buyers inquiring, we can see how this could possibly shift things slightly heading into the second half of the year if this trend continues.

I am seeing and hearing from more buyers, first time buyers especially. With lower interest rates, first time buyers have had time to pile up more savings and with prices declining they can now afford more, including homes they may not have been able to consider in the past that are now within their reach sitting on the market and waiting for a negotiation.

As an example the condo market has seen such a price shift that there are plenty of starter 1 Bed or 2 Bed units that are selling 20% below what they sold in the peak of 2021 and 2022. I’m talking 2 Bedrooms, mid town, next to the subway, newer buildings, move in ready that used to sell for $800,000 -$850,000 now selling for $630,000. More to come on this and houses in different neighbourhoods with similar trends of prices falling as I’ll share some of these real sold examples 2021 vs 2025 similar sales on my instagram and twitter in the coming weeks.

The average selling price in June 2025 dropped to $1,101,691, a 5.4% dip from June 2024.

So, the trend is clear: prices are softening, listings are piling up but at a slower pace, and buyers have options with new buyers starting to take advantage of the lower prices as some jump in.

Final Thought:

Here’s the truth no one wants to say out loud: There will not be a big bounce back this year, or next year. We’re not suddenly going back to 2021/22 energy. If anything, the market is normalizing, and this might be what normal feels like for a while. I suspect we will see prices begin to flatline going into 2026 and just stay there, for a while.

If you’re a buyer waiting for some magic moment where prices crash you’re probably waiting too long. As mentioned above you can find homes selling 10%, 15%, 20% less today than they were selling in 2021 -2023. Will prices fall further? Possibly, nobody can predict that, but with so many buyers on the sidelines I can see many of them realize that timing the market is a foolish game, if they are in a secure position finically, have strong jobs that wont be affected much by tariffs or a recession then starting their search now is as good as any, buyer competition is low, they can now afford more in the sought after areas they want to be in and if they plan correctly and are patient to buy what they like and stay 5,7,10 years they will be just fine even if prices fall a bit.

For sellers. This summer is all about strategy. If you need to sell, price sharp. Look great. Negotiate smart. This is not a time to be stubborn. And above all—adjust your expectations.

Questions? Want a deep dive on your neighbourhood? Or just want someone to cut through the noise? Send me a email or set up a No Obligation Phone call.

Prices Continue To Fall, Anxious Seller's, Patient Buyer's. Opportunity On The Horizon.

If you’ve been wondering where today’s buyers have gone, you’re not alone. After a frenetic market that saw bidding wars and skyrocketing prices for years, many buyers have stepped to the sidelines – some by choice, other's dealing with affordability pressures, uncertainty around the economy, and simply a lack of compelling options.

In May 2025, GTA home sales ticked down to 6,244 units, marking a 13.3% decline compared to May 2024 (6,244 vs. 7,206) as reported by TRREB’s MLS® System.

Broadly speaking, the average selling price across all home types in May came in at $1,120,879, down 4% from $1,167,646 in May 2024. This year’s spring frenzy has cooled into something more akin to a gentle breeze.

INVENTORY

There’s no shortage of choice for buyers. May saw a 14% increase in new listings year-over-year, with 21,819 properties hitting the market. That’s a big jump, up 14% compared to 19,147 in May 2024.

Active listings climbed even more dramatically—up 42% compared to last May. That means more unsold homes sitting on the market longer. The average time to sell? 27 days on market. But talk to any agent and you’ll hear stories of 30, 60, even 90 days and counting.

That being said it is Important to understand that a large portion of duplexes, triplex’s or homes in need of upgrades seem to be the ones taking the longest to sell or not selling at all. Why? Capital is hard to come by or expensive so most buyers do not want to renovate right now and investors who usually look to buy multi -units are more interested in selling.

What’s Driving the Surge?

Confidence—or lack of it. Borrowing costs are still high. And even though there’s chatter about rate cuts, buyers aren’t rushing in just yet.

Shift in Buyer Mindset: With mortgage rates still elevated compared to pre-pandemic lows, prospective buyers aren’t as eager to roll the dice on a hot listing. They’re willing to wait for more options or better pricing rather than chase the next bidding war.

Condo vs. Freehold Dynamics: The condo segment has especially piled up extra supply. We currently have 7.5 Months of Inventory for Condos. Freeholds have close to 4.5 Months of inventory. Meaning at the current rate of sales we would need nearly 5 Months to sell all Freeholds and nearly 8 Months to sell all condos. In the Spring of 2022 we were selling all home types within 1-2 months.

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH PRICES?


Prices are dropping, but slowly. While headlines talk about affordability “improving,” what that really means is prices are dropping faster than interest rates.

Detached Homes: In May 2025, the average price for a detached home sat at $1,425,264, down 5.4 percent compared to May 2024.

Semi-Detached: Semi-detached homes averaged $1,098,447 in May 2025, down 6.4 percent from a year earlier.

Townhouses: Townhouse prices moderated to $904,272, down 4.5 percent from May 2024

Condo Apartments: Average condo-apartment prices dipped to $683,413, a 6.4 percent decline compared to May 2024’s $715,000.

Yet some segments—especially entry-level homes—are holding steadier. And while average prices have declined, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite (which adjusts for types of homes sold) shows a 4.5% drop year-over-year.

That’s three straight months of downward pressure on average selling prices. In effect, buyers who watched values climb unsustainably over the past few years can now, for the first time in over a decade, consider that “negotiation” actually means having leverage.

WHAT SELLER'S NEED TO KNOW

Lack of Economic Confidence: Consumer confidence in Canada took a hit in April 2025, owing to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and questions about where interest rates will settle later this year.

Equity Concerns: Buyers who purchased at the 2021-2022 peak often have minimal equity cushions. As a result, they’re wary of selling now unless they can be certain their next purchase will appreciate—another factor keeping them on the sidelines.

If you’re planning to sell this summer, here’s the blunt truth: price below what you think your home is worth. Why? Because it’s one of the few ways left to generate urgency. List too high and you’ll sit. Price it right—or slightly low—and you might still get interest, or even a decent offer.

Let’s be honest: buyers today aren’t feeling FOMO. There’s no frenzy. There’s no lineups. There’s no “offer night with six bids” kind of magic. That script has changed. And if you do get an offer—consider taking it. Holding out for last year’s price could mean watching your place linger into fall… or beyond.

WHAT BUYER'S NEED TO KNOW

For the first time since 2010, buyers can once again negotiate deals that weren’t possible during the 2021-2022 frenzy. Consider these practical takeaways:

Bidding Wars Are Rare: In May 2025, fewer than 15 percent of GTA listings received multiple offers—a stark contrast to the 60 – 70 percent we saw in late 2021.

Price Reductions Are Common: It seems close to half of active listings in May underwent at least one price reduction. If you’re touring homes, ask your agent to see the “price history”—a sign that the seller may be more negotiable.

Longer Negotiation Windows: Whereas a summer 2022 listing might have sold in 7 days or less, today’s homes often linger for 3 – 6 weeks. Buyers can schedule multiple showings, secure a home inspection, and consult advisors without feeling rushed.

Buyers with strong financing or all-cash are especially well positioned. A seller who previously fielded eight offers at full ask might now receive a single conditional offer at 95 percent of list price. That difference—$25k – $50k in the cheque—represents genuine opportunity.

LOOKING AHEAD

Why This Summer Might Be the Sweet Spot of 2025 for buyers. After months of correction and cooling, we’re approaching a unique window where:

Buyer Choice Peaks: Inventory is at its highest seasonal level, every year without a doubt July and especially August are two of the slower months for GTA Real Estate activity, kids get out of school, many buyers head for vacations and the market slows to crawl come early August. As an example July 2024 saw 5,498 total home sales and August 2024 saw just 5,094 sales. With 2025 sales numbers continuing to trend downward I suspect we could see less than 5000 sales in each of these upcoming months, which historically speaking is very low as we usually average closer to 6000+ sales when looking at the last decade.

Over the years I’ve had many buyers purchase within these months without bidding wars and usually a sense of desperation from sellers as many see and understand how slow things are come peak summer.

So my advice to any active or about to be active buyers is to focus in on the next 10 weeks, be active in the market looking at homes, going to open houses and you may just find a great home in a sought after neighbourhood at a much more reduced purchase price than you could have imagined.

Seller Motivation Rises: Those who listed early spring and didn’t sell are now more realistic about pricing. Many will drop their price a final time in June/July to avoid the August market.

Mortgage Rate Clarity (Expected): Analysts anticipate one or two Bank of Canada rate cuts before year-end. As soon as buyers sense the direction of rates, continue to see the headlines of prices coming down and listings up they’ll re-enter the market in search of a deal.

Summer 2025 may represent one of the few times in the past 15 years where a buyer truly has the upper hand. Properties have fewer competing offers, days on market hover near two – three weeks, and motivated sellers—especially those carrying second mortgages—are willing to negotiate freebies (credit for closing costs, extended closing, covering HV/AC tune-ups, etc.). I suspect some buyers who are uniquely positioned will look to jump in and get a deal, others will wait to try to time the bottom.

As always feel free to send me your feedback or questions.

Who the heck is buying in todays market?

Toronto Real Estate Newsletter – April 2025

As we wrap up the first quarter of 2025, it's clear that the Toronto real estate market is still struggling to gain its footing. While prices have remained relatively flat, the story for March is more about what isn’t happening than what is. Simply put, buyer confidence remains low, and it’s showing in the numbers.

March 2025 Market Snapshot

According to the latest TRREB data, GTA REALTORS® reported just 5,011 home sales in March 2025, a sharp 23.1% decline compared to March 2024. In fact, this marks the lowest March sales figure in the past 30 years—a stunning statistic that underscores the uncertainty many buyers are feeling in today’s market.

And yet, new listings are surging. March saw 17,263 new listings, up 28.6% year-over-year. Inventory is building across both the condo and freehold sectors, giving buyers a growing number of options and reinforcing the shift away from a competitive seller’s market.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down month-over-month compared to February 2025, showing that any early-year momentum may have already started to fade.

What’s Happening on the Ground

It’s becoming increasingly clear that many buyers are in wait-and-see mode. Concerns around high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and affordability continue to weigh on consumer sentiment. So who’s actually buying right now? I’m finding those in a strong financial position are active, perhaps they have no property to sell or a low to no mortgage at all. Many are looking to find value by upsizing to a family home and are the ones actively searching, others are first time home buyers wanting to use this slowdown to get into a neighbourhood and home that in past years seemed impossible — this is especially happening in neighbourhoods with strong fundamentals such as well rated schools, transit, parks, walkability, as these neighbourhoods usually have very low inventory and plenty of competition. These buyers are interested in turnkey, ready to go, homes. With inventory higher than past years the opportunities are there more so than we have seen in years before to enter these sought after neighbourhoods. 

Still the bulk of prospective buyers are cautious and playing wait and see, but make no mistake I’m seeing interest from buyers, conversations are happening, inquiries are there just at a more casual pace, watching, evaluating and thus not many actually converting to transactions because of the uncertainty, which makes sense. 

Freeholds are definitely moving faster than Condos. Smaller condos, Triplex homes and commercial properties are the most sluggish part of the market as those are always investor driven and most investors are currently hibernating. For those who can afford to take on some calculated risk they are seeing the opportunities and understanding the negotiating power they have in todays market and on the look out for deals.    

At the same time, sellers are entering the market in greater numbers. Whether motivated by changing life circumstances, financial needs, or a belief that the market may worsen before it improves, we’re seeing more listings hit the market than we have in years.

Condo and Freehold: Inventory Keeps Climbing

In both the condo and freehold segments, we’re seeing inventory swell. Condos, in particular, remain a buyer-friendly market with high supply and limited urgency from buyers. Meanwhile, freeholds—especially detached homes—are still seeing demand, but it's tempered and heavily price-sensitive.

Sellers in all segments should note: homes that are priced accurately and show well will still attract attention. But the margin for error is slim. Overpriced properties are sitting, and buyers are not in the mood to chase.

Looking Forward: What to Watch This Spring

We’re entering the busiest season of the real estate year—the spring market—but this year feels different. Buyer activity has been slow to materialize, instead they are watching and unless something changes—such as a significant mortgage rate drop or a shift in economic sentiment—we may be headed for a slower-than-usual spring.

This doesn’t mean the market is dead (but it is very slow)—it’s evolving. For buyers, it’s a chance to shop with less pressure and more options. For sellers, it’s more important than ever to have a clear strategy, strong marketing, and a realistic price.

Final Thoughts

The first three months of 2025 has reminded us that confidence plays a huge role in the housing market. Even with more homes for sale and prices relatively flat, many are choosing to wait. What happens next is anyones guess, but could a usual seasonal slow down that happens every June-August finally bring prices down as inventory sits? Will buyers flinch and jump in as they see more options and perhaps lower rates and a new election calm things come summer? As I've perviously stated in my past newsletters I do not see Condo’s improving anytime soon, inventory will stay high, and prices will trend downwards for the rest of the year. Freeholds? Well if things calm down with all the tariff talks and rates drop further I suspect we could see a stronger than usual fall market for those.

If you're looking to buy or sell, knowledge is power. Let’s talk strategy so you can make the most informed decisions possible in today’s market.

As always, if you have any questions or want to know what’s happening in your neighbourhood specifically, or just understand the value of your home in todays market, don’t hesitate to reach out!

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