LESS CHOICE, BUT BUYERS ARE STILL IN CHARGE — FOR NOW

TORONTO & GTA REAL ESTATE — SEPTEMBER 2026

August inventory pulled back sharply, prices remained lower, and the fall market may be more balanced than the headline numbers suggest.

August is normally one of the quieter months in Toronto real estate, and 2026 was no exception. GTA sales slipped slightly compared with last year, but the bigger story was the drop in new and active listings. There were fewer buyers making a move, but there were also noticeably fewer homes for them to choose from.

That does not mean we have suddenly returned to a seller’s market. Prices remain below last year’s levels, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers—particularly condo buyers or house buyers looking outside the Toronto 416 core —still have plenty of room to negotiate.

The questions going forward:

Will inventory continues to tighten into the fall and winter? If so, will the advantage buyers have enjoyed the last 18 months begin to narrow?

The Big Picture

GTA Sales: 5,057 — down 2.1% year over year from last August

New Listings: 12,075 — down a whopping 14.1% year over year

Active Listings: 24,482 — down 11.3% year over year

Average Price: $993,410 — down 2.7% year over year

HPI Benchmark: Down 4.5% year over year

Months of Inventory: 4.6 across all GTA property types (I unpack this further below)

Sales were down only 2.1% year over year, while new listings fell 14.1%. In plain English: demand was soft, but supply pulled back much faster. Active listings also dropped 11.3% from last August, to 24,482 homes, we will see listings come up slightly in September as is typical but It does not feel like it will be a surge of listings like last fall.

The average GTA selling price was $993,410, down 2.7% year over year. TRREB’s benchmark measure, which adjusts for differences in the types of homes sold, was down 4.5%.

The average home took 35 days to sell, or 51 property days when re-listings are included. This is still a market where sellers need patience and realistic expectations as well as pricing ahead of the market. Meaning do not price what you think you might be worth today but 2-4% less than that to attract buyers attention.

Houses and Condos are still telling two different stories

Houses

Sales: Down 9% from last year

New Listings: Down 14%

Active Listings: Down 16%

Months of Inventory: 4.7 across the GTA. This metric tells us how quickly the market is moving. If for example Months of Inventory is sitting between 0-3 Months it means the market is moving fast, the closer to zero inventory gets the faster homes are selling. In 2021 we had .75 months of inventory and rates were 1.3% so homes were flying and prices soaring. In contrast in 2025 this number was closer to 5.5 Months and homes were sitting even longer and prices declining.

So 0-3 Months equals a fast market with prices usually going up

4-5 Months equals a balanced market where prices mostly stay flat

6+ months is a very slow market where homes take a long time to sell the higher the number and prices fall

We’ve seen Months Of Inventory drop consistently this year with inventory lessoning and demand picking up slightly and although all of the GTA may be sitting at 4.7 Months it is important to note that in some neighbourhoods in the outer GTA Months of Inventory may be sitting at 5-6+ months and prices are much softer and possibly slipping, same as many of Toronto’s 416 neighbourhoods close to Bloor, Danforth, College, Queen and more sought after walkable and transit friendly areas, Months of Inventory is sitting closer to 3-3.5 Months and thus those neighbourhoods are more competitive. Good homes can sell well, that does not mean every house can command an ambitious price, neighbourhood, walkability, transit, school catchment play a role more than ever.

Average Price: $1,208,920 — down 2%

Median Price: $1,012,400 — down 4%

Condos

Still very sluggish although some of the larger 2 and 3 bedroom condos closer to the core seem to be doing better. Smaller condos as well as older condos with higher maintenance fees are really struggling with inventory pilling up and demand extremely low. The silver lining is that just like houses we are seeing less overall inventory today than last year. But buyer demand is low.

Sales: Down 11% from last year

New Listings: Down 13%

Active Listings: Down 17%

Months of Inventory: 6.5

Average Price: $631,979 — down 6%

Median Price: $565,000 — down 6%

WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND

I continue to see and meet with many first time home buyers that know prices have come down, and they are carefully comparing value from one property to the next. If a home has been sitting on the market, buyers expect the asking price to reflect that—and most are not afraid to negotiate.

Sellers are also becoming more realistic. Properties that show well and are priced close to current market value are selling.

The market is highly selective. A strong sale on one street does not automatically lift the value of every nearby home like it has in the past. This is because demand is low and choice is high. You may list one week and be the most renovated home in the neighbourhood and get attention but a week or two later a couple others have listed similar to yours and if you weren’t willing to sell last week for a bit less, you may find yourself at the mercy of what other homes will sell for and be forced to lower your price further if they sell for less, or possibly have buyers overlook you for the newer listings.

What could happen this fall?

September normally brings more listings and more buyers back to the market. The question this year is whether new supply returns in enough volume.

If listings remain well below last year’s levels while buyers become a little more confident, competition could improve for sellers and put a floor under prices in some neighbourhoods.

I would not call this the beginning of a broad price rebound. Home values will not be increasing anytime soon, at best they will stay flat to finish the year based on the activity I am seeing. Affordability remains difficult, economic uncertainty has not disappeared, and condo inventory is still high.

My expectation is a steady but uneven fall market: more activity than August, selective competition for standout houses, and continued negotiating opportunities in the condo market.

My advice right now

For buyers:

Do not wait for a headline to announce the perfect time to buy. Do not try to time the market. Focus on the property, the neighbourhood and making sure it compliments your lifestyle, and most importantly buy within your means and understand what those carrying costs are ahead of buying. Finally, stay a while, 7, 8, 10 years to build some equity before your next move. For first time buyers trying to get into the freehold house market in the city, it feels like there is a window here where you could get into the market at 2019 pricing. Im not sure how ling this window will stay open.

For sellers:

The first two weeks you are listed still matter. Price for today’s market, prepare the property properly and have a plan if the initial response is weak so you can pivot.

With fewer listings available, a well-positioned home can stand out—but buyers will not rescue an unrealistic asking price.

If you are thinking of buying, selling, upsizing or downsizing, I am always happy to have a straightforward, no-obligation consultation about your options. Click the link below to set up a call.

Set Up A No Obligation Phone Call With Me