LESS CHOICE, BUT BUYERS ARE STILL IN CHARGE — FOR NOW

TORONTO & GTA REAL ESTATE — SEPTEMBER 2026

August inventory pulled back sharply, prices remained lower, and the fall market may be more balanced than the headline numbers suggest.

August is normally one of the quieter months in Toronto real estate, and 2026 was no exception. GTA sales slipped slightly compared with last year, but the bigger story was the drop in new and active listings. There were fewer buyers making a move, but there were also noticeably fewer homes for them to choose from.

That does not mean we have suddenly returned to a seller’s market. Prices remain below last year’s levels, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers—particularly condo buyers or house buyers looking outside the Toronto 416 core —still have plenty of room to negotiate.

The questions going forward:

Will inventory continues to tighten into the fall and winter? If so, will the advantage buyers have enjoyed the last 18 months begin to narrow?

The Big Picture

GTA Sales: 5,057 — down 2.1% year over year from last August

New Listings: 12,075 — down a whopping 14.1% year over year

Active Listings: 24,482 — down 11.3% year over year

Average Price: $993,410 — down 2.7% year over year

HPI Benchmark: Down 4.5% year over year

Months of Inventory: 4.6 across all GTA property types (I unpack this further below)

Sales were down only 2.1% year over year, while new listings fell 14.1%. In plain English: demand was soft, but supply pulled back much faster. Active listings also dropped 11.3% from last August, to 24,482 homes, we will see listings come up slightly in September as is typical but It does not feel like it will be a surge of listings like last fall.

The average GTA selling price was $993,410, down 2.7% year over year. TRREB’s benchmark measure, which adjusts for differences in the types of homes sold, was down 4.5%.

The average home took 35 days to sell, or 51 property days when re-listings are included. This is still a market where sellers need patience and realistic expectations as well as pricing ahead of the market. Meaning do not price what you think you might be worth today but 2-4% less than that to attract buyers attention.

Houses and Condos are still telling two different stories

Houses

Sales: Down 9% from last year

New Listings: Down 14%

Active Listings: Down 16%

Months of Inventory: 4.7 across the GTA. This metric tells us how quickly the market is moving. If for example Months of Inventory is sitting between 0-3 Months it means the market is moving fast, the closer to zero inventory gets the faster homes are selling. In 2021 we had .75 months of inventory and rates were 1.3% so homes were flying and prices soaring. In contrast in 2025 this number was closer to 5.5 Months and homes were sitting even longer and prices declining.

So 0-3 Months equals a fast market with prices usually going up

4-5 Months equals a balanced market where prices mostly stay flat

6+ months is a very slow market where homes take a long time to sell the higher the number and prices fall

We’ve seen Months Of Inventory drop consistently this year with inventory lessoning and demand picking up slightly and although all of the GTA may be sitting at 4.7 Months it is important to note that in some neighbourhoods in the outer GTA Months of Inventory may be sitting at 5-6+ months and prices are much softer and possibly slipping, same as many of Toronto’s 416 neighbourhoods close to Bloor, Danforth, College, Queen and more sought after walkable and transit friendly areas, Months of Inventory is sitting closer to 3-3.5 Months and thus those neighbourhoods are more competitive. Good homes can sell well, that does not mean every house can command an ambitious price, neighbourhood, walkability, transit, school catchment play a role more than ever.

Average Price: $1,208,920 — down 2%

Median Price: $1,012,400 — down 4%

Condos

Still very sluggish although some of the larger 2 and 3 bedroom condos closer to the core seem to be doing better. Smaller condos as well as older condos with higher maintenance fees are really struggling with inventory pilling up and demand extremely low. The silver lining is that just like houses we are seeing less overall inventory today than last year. But buyer demand is low.

Sales: Down 11% from last year

New Listings: Down 13%

Active Listings: Down 17%

Months of Inventory: 6.5

Average Price: $631,979 — down 6%

Median Price: $565,000 — down 6%

WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND

I continue to see and meet with many first time home buyers that know prices have come down, and they are carefully comparing value from one property to the next. If a home has been sitting on the market, buyers expect the asking price to reflect that—and most are not afraid to negotiate.

Sellers are also becoming more realistic. Properties that show well and are priced close to current market value are selling.

The market is highly selective. A strong sale on one street does not automatically lift the value of every nearby home like it has in the past. This is because demand is low and choice is high. You may list one week and be the most renovated home in the neighbourhood and get attention but a week or two later a couple others have listed similar to yours and if you weren’t willing to sell last week for a bit less, you may find yourself at the mercy of what other homes will sell for and be forced to lower your price further if they sell for less, or possibly have buyers overlook you for the newer listings.

What could happen this fall?

September normally brings more listings and more buyers back to the market. The question this year is whether new supply returns in enough volume.

If listings remain well below last year’s levels while buyers become a little more confident, competition could improve for sellers and put a floor under prices in some neighbourhoods.

I would not call this the beginning of a broad price rebound. Home values will not be increasing anytime soon, at best they will stay flat to finish the year based on the activity I am seeing. Affordability remains difficult, economic uncertainty has not disappeared, and condo inventory is still high.

My expectation is a steady but uneven fall market: more activity than August, selective competition for standout houses, and continued negotiating opportunities in the condo market.

My advice right now

For buyers:

Do not wait for a headline to announce the perfect time to buy. Do not try to time the market. Focus on the property, the neighbourhood and making sure it compliments your lifestyle, and most importantly buy within your means and understand what those carrying costs are ahead of buying. Finally, stay a while, 7, 8, 10 years to build some equity before your next move. For first time buyers trying to get into the freehold house market in the city, it feels like there is a window here where you could get into the market at 2019 pricing. Im not sure how ling this window will stay open.

For sellers:

The first two weeks you are listed still matter. Price for today’s market, prepare the property properly and have a plan if the initial response is weak so you can pivot.

With fewer listings available, a well-positioned home can stand out—but buyers will not rescue an unrealistic asking price.

If you are thinking of buying, selling, upsizing or downsizing, I am always happy to have a straightforward, no-obligation consultation about your options. Click the link below to set up a call.

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GTA Real Estate Market Update – June 2026

The Market Is Moving Along… But Buyers Are Taking Their Time

The latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board show a market that continues to evolve at a measured pace.

In May, GTA home sales increased by 6.3% compared to the same month last year, keep in mind last year were 20+ year low numbers so we really dont have anywhere to go but up from here. New listings declined by nearly 19%, this stat is the more important one for me, as we see inventory slowly decrease and sales slowly increase are we at or have we started to move on from the bottom?

This combination has led to a gradual tightening of inventory (although we are above average inventory levels still) across many parts of the region. The average selling price across the GTA was $1,069,700, down 4.6% year-over-year, while active listings sat at 26,927 homes. Although inventory remains elevated by historical standards, buyers are no longer seeing the same abundance of choice that existed six to twelve months ago.

The result is a market that feels more active than the headline price numbers might suggest.

What I’m Seeing On The Ground

One of the biggest differences between today's market and what the statistics alone show is the level of buyer engagement.

Over the past several months, I have noticed a significant increase in conversations with prospective buyers. Phone calls, property inquiries, showings, and requests for neighbourhood information have all increased. The interest is there.

What hasn't returned yet is urgency or the need to buy for many.

Most buyers are still taking a cautious approach. They are researching neighbourhoods more thoroughly, comparing properties more carefully, and spending more time understanding market trends before making a commitment.

This is very different from the market conditions we experienced during 2020 through 2022, where decisions often needed to be made immediately. Today's buyers want confidence before moving forward, and many are willing to wait for the right property rather than compromise.

As a result, well-priced homes continue to sell, but buyers are negotiating more aggressively and are rarely rushing into purchases.

Condos Continue To Present Opportunities

The condominium market remains one of the most interesting segments of the GTA.

In several Toronto neighbourhoods, condos are now regularly trading below $750 - $800 per square foot. In some cases, these values are comparable to pricing levels we were seeing in 2018.

For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this creates opportunities that haven't existed for years. Lower purchase prices combined with lower borrowing costs compared to the peak of the rate cycle have improved affordability significantly.

While not every building or neighbourhood is experiencing the same level of price adjustment, there is no question that many condo buyers today have substantially more negotiating power than they did just a few years ago and can buy larger 2 Bedroom units at much lower prices than just a few short month ago.

Inventory Is Tightening, But Buyers Still Hold Leverage

The biggest story from the May numbers may not be sales growth—it may be the reduction in new listings.

New listings declined by 18.9% year-over-year while sales increased. This means existing inventory is slowly being absorbed by the market.

That said, we're not seeing widespread bidding wars return, nor are we seeing a rapid appreciation cycle develop. Buyers continue to benefit from elevated inventory levels compared to long-term norms, longer days on market, and increased negotiating opportunities.

What To Expect For The Rest Of 2026

While inventory has become slightly tighter, there is still plenty of supply available across most property types and price points.

Unless we see a major shift in economic conditions, employment growth, or borrowing costs, I believe the current trend of relatively flat pricing—with modest fluctuations depending on neighbourhood and property type—will continue through the remainder of 2026.

Some sought after areas may experience slight appreciation as inventory tightens further, while others, particularly portions of the condominium market, may continue to see modest price softness.

For buyers, this likely means continued opportunities and negotiating power.

For sellers, it means pricing strategy, presentation, and marketing remain critical. The days of simply listing a property and expecting multiple offers are still the exception rather than the rule.

Final Thoughts

The GTA market continues to show signs of improving activity, but confidence remains the key ingredient that buyers are waiting for.

As we move through the second half of the year, I'll be watching inventory levels closely. If listings continue to decline while buyer activity remains steady heading into the fall market, we could see prices stabilize further and begin trending upward in select segments heading into 2027.

For now, buyers continue to have options, sellers need to remain realistic, and the market remains one of patience rather than urgency.

If you're considering buying, selling, or simply want to understand what's happening in your neighbourhood, feel free to reach out anytime.

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— Gus Papaioannou

Realosophy Realty

February Data : Sales, Prices Continue Slide, Signal Opportunity For Some Buyers.

Data Via https://www.realosophy.com/

According to the February 2026 Market Watch report, we had 3,868 home sales, representing a 6.3% decline compared to February 2025. To put this in context our 25 year average since 2000 has been 6100 sales in February so we are down 37% from the average February.

At the same time, new listings fell even more sharply to 10,705, down 17.7% year-over-year. Still we have a lot of inventory available for sale but it vary’s from home type and area. Downtown core condos are probably where we see some of the highest inventory as well as outside Toronto with plenty of suburban options.

The average selling price across the GTA came in at $1,008,968, down 7.1% year-over-year.

Lets take a look at how each housing type is performing.

DETACHED HOMES

Breaking the market down by housing type reveals meaningful differences between property segments. Detached homes remain the most expensive segment of the market, with an average selling price of approximately $1,568,543 across the GTA. Still detached homes prices dropped 8.2% from last year Feb, the biggest dip in all home types, most likely because they are the most expensive and fewer buyers are actively looking in the higher price point.

Sales activity in this category totalled 698 transactions in February, reflecting a moderate slowdown compared to last year as higher borrowing costs continue to limit affordability for many buyers.

SEMI-DETACHED HOMES

The semi-detached market, often considered the entry point into the low-rise housing market in Toronto, recorded 336 sales in February with an average selling price of roughly $1,229,853 across the GTA. Semi-detached homes continue to serve as a compromise between affordability and space, appealing to young families and first-time buyers moving up from condominiums. However, like detached homes, this segment has also experienced modest price declines compared to the previous year, reflecting broader affordability constraints in the market.

TOWNHOUSES

Townhouses continue to act as a key “missing middle” housing option in the GTA. February saw 545 townhouse sales with an average selling price of approximately $980,175. This segment remains particularly attractive to buyers seeking a ground-oriented home with a lower price point than detached or semi-detached properties.

CONDOS

The condominium apartment market remains the most active by transaction volume, with 1,683 sales in February, representing the largest share of all GTA home sales. The average selling price for condos came in at roughly $663,984, making them the most accessible entry point into home ownership for many buyers in the region. Despite this relative affordability, the condo segment has faced some of the most significant price declines year-over-year and we will probably continue to see downward pressure on prices for this segment going into the end of 2026.

SUMMARY

For now, the February data reflects a market that is slower than historical norms. That being said I’m still seeing interest in the market from many first time homebuyers or some up-sizers seeing an opportunity to buy for much less than years previous. Buyers are being cautious and taking their time.

For those looking to get into the market this year, there are some deals to be had if you know where to look and how to negotiate them, yet other parts of the market can be competitive depending on neighbourhood and home type as well as price point. We are even seeing the odd bidding war on those turn key ready homes in the 1M - 1.5M price point in sought after pockets as we see few of these available to start the year and more of the inventory are in the fixer upper, duplex or triplex homes, these cost money and time to update and not many have an appetite for that right now.

A savvy buyer can find that home that needs a bit of love, maybe isn’t marketed correctly, its not staged or photographed well and with a bit of paint and a small updates such as updating floors or kitchen countertops its a move in ready home at a discount!

As always reach out with your real estate questions or comments or feel free to click the link below to book a No Obligation Phone Call.

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